The International 2024 is back for its 13th annual edition of Dota 2’s most prestigious tournament.
Held in Copenhagen, Denmark, The International 2024 is set to bring together 16 of the world’s best teams to compete for its US$2,295,500 prize pool.
With 16 teams vying for the title, the question on everyone’s mind is: Who are the favorites to lift the Aegis of Champions? And which underdogs could surprise us?
Ben “Noxville” Steenhuisen breaks down the teams competing at The International 2024 to give us his insights on their chances of victory.
Noxville’s The International 2024 predictions and tier list
S-Tier: Team Falcons, Gamin Gladiators, Xtreme Gaming, Team Spirit
There have been nine tier 1 events in the 2023/2024 season, and they have been dominated by just a handful of teams.
Team Falcons are the most notorious, appearing in five finals and winning four of those — the most of any team. Gaimin Gladiators have been in three finals and only won one -– however it was the biggest tournament of the season so far (Riyadh Masters). Xtreme Gaming have made it to three finals and won two; whilst Team Spirit have made two finals and won one.
These teams form the clear S-tier in any objective power ranking and are the primary focus for new fans wanting a “safe pick” to do well.
A-Tier: Team Liquid, BetBoom Team, Tundra Esports
No other team has had the consistency to make multiple finals and also won at least one (Team Liquid and BetBoom Team have both made two finals but lost each time). These two teams form the core part of the A-tier, but I believe a case can be made for Tundra Esports to join them.
Tundra haven’t made any finals but did place fourth in the Riyadh Masters 2024 (only losing 1-2 to Liquid and 0–2 to Falcons), 5th/6th in DreamLeague Season 23 (only dropping series to Falcons, Gaimin, and BetBoom – though they did beat BetBoom earlier in the event).
Tundra’s match record is so impressive they are actually rated (by Glicko 2 ratings) the third best team in the world — they just seem to get unstuck when battling Falcons (which is very reasonable).
B-Tier: Cloud9, G2 x IG
The next tier is small, it’s Cloud9 (formerly Entity Gaming) and G2 x IG, who’ve had very different journeys through the season.
As Entity, the Cloud9 squad only played two tier 1 events this season: Elite League S1 (11/12th) and the Riyadh Masters (9-12th). Their performance in the Riyadh Play-ins (8 wins, 2 losses) and the Group Stage (11 wins, 3 losses) was great. Unfortunately they met up with Gaimin Gladiators (losing 0-2) and BetBoom (1-2).
This is a longer-term trend, in the last three months they’ve played 31 series, losing only two series against teams which are not in listed in the S-tier or A-tier above (they lost to beastcoast in 1win Dota Summer; and Nigma Galaxy in Fissure Universe: Episode 2). Their coach Astini is also noteworthy. Last TI there was definitely a perception that he was able to really eek out a special performance from the nouns team he was coaching, and those small gains could be significant for a team like Cloud9.
G2 were wobbly at the start of the season but then consistently decent in the middle: 7th/8th in Elite League S1, 5th/6th at ESL Birmingham, and fourth in PGL Wallachia. The Riyadh Masters was a disaster for them however, crashing out in last place from the play-ins.
Both G2 and Cloud9 have shown the skill throughout the season to topple some giants, and this potential is why they’re in the B-tier.
We’re going to skip the C-tier for now, and head to the D-tier. These are three teams with limited top event event exposure, two of them only competed in a single tier 1 event this season.
D-Tier: Team Zero, beastcoast, Talon Esports
The first team here is Team Zero, a shock surprise team to qualify (first) via the Chinese qualifiers. They played in the Clavision Snow Ruyi event, coming in last. There’s just no data to support them having a deep run at The International — but admittedly that’s exactly the type of environment in which they’ve succeeded so far.
Beastcoast qualified for the Riyadh Masters and had a decent showing in the Play-ins (5 wins, 5 losses) but then bombed out in the Group Stage (4 wins, 10 losses) — their only series win there was against Mouz who were eliminated alongside them. They played in Elite League Season 2 (a tier 2 event) and once again had a good early display (3 — 1 in the Swiss Stage) followed by a bombing right after (4 — 13 in the Round-Robin).
I wasn’t sure if Talon Esports belonged here, or the C-Tier; but to me they seem a step down from the rest of the teams. At Elite League S1 they nearly advanced through the Swiss Stage, whilst at ESL Birmingham they just barely avoided a last place finish.
They’ve played 61 series this year across all qualifiers and events, and they’ve only won three of those series against other TI 2024 competitors: a BetBoom Dacha bo1 qualifier game against G2 x IG, a bo2 against G2 x IG in Birmingham, and a bo3 against Aurora.
C-Tier: 1win Team, Aurora, nouns, HEROIC
So, who’s left over to fill out the C-Tier?
There’s 1win Team, Aurora, nouns, and HEROIC — all qualifier teams, and all teams with a very similar statistical rating (between 1850 and 1882 Glicko 2). There’s not a huge amount of value in delving deep into the history of these teams because their success or failure at The International depends so heavily on so many other factors such as the group they are in, upsets, and the paired group they have for the Seeding Decider Stage (a bo3 where the winner of one group can pick between the 3rd/4th place team of their paired group, whilst the runner-up of that group plays the leftover team).
If I had to drag one of these teams up to the B-Tier it would be 1win, but I’m happy with sticking with this weird distribution for now.
What’s always great about the International is that every team is in control of their own future and can surprise the world. CDEC, Wings, OG, Spirit have all done incredibly in past TIs despite being far from the favorites at the time, and this year could be the start of a new legacy for an unexpected team!
